Skip to main content

The Stupidity of Buying High and Selling During a Crash

 


Business World Online

I was looking at Facebook comments some time ago when the stock market opened red. This caused me to write about why I'd listen to investor Warren Buffett over social media naysayers. One thing I noticed (but never wanted to speak of immediately) is how people buy stocks during the high and sell them during a crash. It's pretty much contrary to what Buffett advises to buy during a dip that happened for some time. I've been checking the stock market performance (because I've got index funds) to see what my next move would be. It's because the GInvest system, unlike the AXA Chinese Tycoon Fund, allows me to be flexible to insert a certain amount within the minimum. A person may invest PHP 1,000.00 during regular days and invest PHP 2,000.00 or more during a dip. Right now, some of the GInvest products are at a high, making me think, "If I invest for another year then I should do cost averaging instead!"

Instead, from Bankrate, you may want to follow this advice during a dip:

3 investing strategies to consider if you want to buy the dip

If you’re thinking about buying the dip for the long term, you have a number of strategies that you could use to find attractive returns. Here are three of the most popular:

  • Buy the best stocks in a beaten-down sector. If a whole sector has fallen because investors have turned sour on it, you may have an opportunity to buy the best one or two stocks in the sector. You’ll be able to find the most competitively advantaged players and then buy them before the sector returns to investors’ favor in a couple years.
  • Buy a sector ETF. If you don’t want to do the legwork of investing in individual stocks, then you may be able to turn to a sector ETF and just buy a stake in all the companies in the sector. You’ll want to be careful that you’re actually buying the companies you intend, because some ETFs can be misnamed and hold many stocks you don’t want.
  • Buy the market with an index fund. If you don’t want to do the work to invest in individual stocks or specific sectors, you still have the option to invest in the market with an index fund. A fund based on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index can give you a stake in hundreds of America’s best stocks, and you can buy while it’s out of favor. It’s a great pick for investors who don’t have the time or energy required for more intense investing, and it’s also Warren Buffett’s recommendation for most investors.

Buying while the market is falling is difficult for many investors, however, because it hurts to lose money and the negative sentiment may be worrying, at least in the short term. That’s why Buffett has said, “The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect. You need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd or against the crowd.”

If you’re buying the dip for the long term, you’ll need to have the fortitude to stick with your investments while they fall and hold them through the eventual upturn (hopefully). 

I'm not saying it's stupid to buy during a high. Some people buy during a high when they do cost averaging i.e. invest the same amount for a certain period of time. It's like I would release PHP 1,000.00 to PHP 2,000 a month if the market is high then buy in bulk during bear markets. Right now, if the bear market is over, I would need to limit the purchase to limit the losses. Buying during a high means buying appreciated stocks that may go higher. Cost averaging would mean combining buy high-sell higher and buy low-sell high depending on the NAVPU. The same can apply when buying index funds. Granted, I prefer index funds (for now) so I would buy low during a high and buy high during a low.

Good-performing companies with undervalued stocks provide good opportunities. I decided to get more money into the Philippine Equity Smart Index Fund because of the lower values. Now, I'll have to think about my next move if I should buy more for it before the market recovers. Yet, I feel I still need to keep some cash on hand in the savings for emergency reasons. Sure, I had my health insurance but there are still other emergencies to deal with. That's why I feel cost averaging may be the best move to avoid "timing the market". The only "timing the market" is when it's a bear market or a crash. Other than that, setting aside the same sum for a fixed time interval can be a better option. 

The best thing to do with a crash isn't to sell but to buy more. I wonder if these people bought too much when the stock market rose up. If so, maybe that's why they sold during the crash. That's why I feel like stock investment needs to have more managed risk. The crash is an opportunity to buy. A rise is an opportunity to sell if you really need the money. Instead, people who rely too much on emotions ignore stock knowledge. I've been there and done that. This is one mistake I want to avoid. 

References

"Buying the dip: Is this a good strategy when markets are falling?" by James Royal (May 26, 2022)

"What Is an Index Fund? An Easy Way to Enter the Stock Market" by Kevin Voigt (March 20, 2021)

Popular posts from this blog

The Good Old Days when Gasoline was Cheaper Under the Late Noynoy Aquino

Millennials' Voice I would like to clarify first and foremost that this post isn't an attempt to say that the late Benigno Simeon C. Aquino III's legacy was all bad. Some good things happened. However, let me be clear that it's stupid to say, " We don't need economic cha-cha because of the late Noynoy. " However, let me clear that I decided to write this because of a Facebook post called Millennials' Voice , which wrote this: Did you know that during President Noynoy Aquino's time, the price of oil in the world market was high, between $100 and $110 per barrel. But even with those high prices, gasoline and diesel at local pumps in the country were still relatively affordable.  Under President Duterte, world oil prices went up and down, from a low of $41 to a high of $101 per barrel. The big jump to $101 in 2022 happened because of the war between Russia and Ukraine.   Now, under the current president, world oil prices have gone up again to around $...

The Myth of "Invading" Other Countries Through Foreign Investors and Overseas Filipino Workers

BoardGameGeek Years ago, I could remember how "Filipino pride" seems to be required by the DECS. Some songs in the Filipino subject (or called Tagalog) tend to glorify it. One of the songs was called "Ako'y Isang Pinoy" (or "I'm Pinoy") feels ironic since it was played on an imported music player. We had discussions for years about how Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) are often the unsung heroes or the new heroes. The mentality kept going on with how people desired to take a particular course not because they wanted to--it's because they wanted to go abroad. Why I wanted to take Bachelor of Science in Information Technology (BSIT) was not just to impress people but also to go abroad . However, more people shifted away from BSIT either because they were eliminated (common cause) or because it was too hard for them. Some of them flat out admitted that they took BSIT in hopes of going abroad. Some were taking nursing in hopes of again-- going abro...

"Will #SahodItaasPresyoIbaba Economics Lower Philippine Gas Prices?

Inquirer Gasoline prices have increased again, haven't they?  A few days ago, I wrote  why #SahodItaasPresyoIbaba's view of gas prices is questionable . Today, I feel like writing this after several complaints on Facebook. I would like to create a follow-up post. People are complaining too much without understanding the real reason why some countries have lower prices of gasoline. Real talk. We need to talk about economic policies,  and  of course, please do a study on supply-demand analysis  on supply chain management . Let's examine the complaints made by Bulatlat Bulatlat Here's a chart from Bulatlat that compares the increase in prices of gasoline between the Philippines, Thailand, and Malaysia. It's always problematic when people ignore simple economics. It's funny, but Bulatlat mentions this on their website: Note also how expensive our diesel and gasoline products are compared to those of our ASEAN neighbors. The estimated common price today of diesel in...

#SahodItaasPresyoIbaba Economics' Understanding of How Gasoline Prices Work

International State College of the Philippines Today is Flor Contempacion Day , and rallies are expected. However, whether it's Flor's death anniversary or not, rallies are expected for the wrongest of reasons. I would like to address this photo from the International State College of the Philippines' Facebook page. The demands here are rather clunky and stupid. We have the following demands that would naturally clash with each other, such as: No to the oil deregulation law while demanding lower oil prices. This is simply ignoring the basic fundamentals of economics, namely the law of supply and demand . They say that oil companies are greedy for gain. These rallyists probably don't really understand the difference between revenues and profits . Let's understand the Oil Deregulation Law  The Oil Deregulation Law, or the Republic Act No. 8479 , passed on February 10, 1998, under the late Fidel Valdez Ramos. Here's how the liberalization works: CHAPTER II  LIBERAL...

Learning from the Late Lee Kuan Yew's Proving Protectionist-Driven Economists Wrong About Multinational Corporations

Reading the book From Third World to First is really a must. The late Lee Kuan Yew was faced with the mentality of the development economists of his day. Here's an excerpt from "Chapter 4--Surviving Without a Hinterland" which I'd like to share from Pages 57-58: After several years of disheartening trial and error, we concluded that Singapore's best hope lay with the American multinational corporations (MNCs). When the Taiwanese and Hong Kong entrepreneurs came in the 1960s, they brought low technology such as textile and toy manufacturing, labor-intensive but not large-scale. American MNCs brought higher technology in large-scale operations, creating many jobs. They had weight and confidence. They believed that their government was going to stay in Southeast Asia and their businesses were safe from confiscation or war loss. I gradually crystallized my thoughts and settled on a two-pronged strategy to overcome our disadvantages. The first was to leapfrog the reg...