The year is almost over and I guess I'll write a few more Season's Beatings huh? Right now, I'm keeping an eye on the PSEi score is around 6,500+ as of late. I could remember the time when the stock market went bloody red and this never left my mind...
I could remember all the sarcastic "YEHEY?" from the toxic world of Twitter. There's also such stupidity on Facebook. I could remember arguing with some people who ended up using Ad Homimens in regard to the red stock market scores. Yet, what Warren Buffett says is, "Buy when there's blood on the streets." (read here) As Buffett would also say, "Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." That's if one talks about market timing. Still, I believe in timing the market and time in the market. It's like if I decide to cost-average during low-tier days and add more money when the value is low. In my case, I prefer to use an index fund (in my case the Philippine Equity Smart Index Fund). I also want to learn to buy some individual stocks though I think index funds are suitable for the less aggressive type.
I've heard a lot of stock market horror stories. I don't want to deny some people got poor from the stock market. I wanted to learn via simulation only to find myself practicing using the day trading simulation. What I discovered for myself (via Charlie Munger) is that day trading is practically a speculative orgy (read here). All I depend on are the fluctuations of the day if I do day trading. Buffett even says day trading isn't investing but it's like having a one-night stand. It's really more on gambling than investing. Besides, I tried a simulator on day trading only to find out I could've lost more than PHP 550,000.00 if it were real money. It's a good thing I read more about Buffett and discovered the "boring world" of cost-averaging. I guess a lot of those stock market horror stories are from day trading.
It's safe to assume that it's impatience that causes people to do day trading. There's more thrill in day trading than if I had to pay PHP 3,000.02 every month in an AXA equity fund. Buffett himself is a proponent of cost averaging. Cost averaging can be a very boring method. Value cost averaging will mean waiting for the market to dip before you put in more money. Most of the time, both methods are "boring" by the standards of a thrill seeker. High levels of impatience would even say, "I want to get rich quick now!" When Jeff Bezos ran into Buffett, he asked, "Your strategy is so simple. Why don't they copy you?" "Nobody likes to get rich slowly!" is a correct answer from Buffett.
It's because stock market investment is never meant to be short-term. As Buffett would say, "If you're not willing to own a stock for 10 years then don't think about holding it for 10 minutes." This is all about time in the market vs. timing the market. Sometimes, it might be best to hold some equity funds for a year. Maybe, it might be best to pull out some equity funds during the incoming bull market. I'm simply anticipating yet another decrease because I might buy more units of participation in an equity fund. Unfortunately, some people foolishly panic-sold their devalued stocks and equity funds when the bear market struck (read here).
Instead, the bear market should've been meant for a real genuine "Horray!" I saw the opportunity and decided to slowly invest in three types of equity funds. The Philippine Stock Index Fund, the Global Technology Feeder Fund, and the Global Consumer Trends Feeder Fund from ATRAM. I decided to continue my AXA investment because I want to have time in the market over timing the market. I decided to invest a certain amount of money knowing I'll get more units because of the crash. I shouldn't worry about short-term fluctuations because as Buffett says to treat fluctuations as a friend instead of an enemy in the stock market. For the person who uses cost-averaging--it means getting more during the crash and getting cash when not in a crash. For a value-cost-averaging investor, it means the chance to buy more during a crash.
This kind of impatience can be a real killer. I guess that's why people all bought the hype regarding cryptocurrency. I guess that's why some people decided to engage in Axie Infinity. I guess that's why we've got people who would rather go gambling instead of investing (read here). I've heard of short-term stories where people supposedly got super rich through cryptocurrency. I heard how some people supposedly got super rich from playing Axie Infinity. It's the kind of investment for the impatient. It's pretty much the same reason why some people who married in their 20s are already either legally separated or even divorced in their 30s. Some people marry for the sake of marrying. Meanwhile, your old maid of a batchmate is probably happily single while your other batchmate who married in her 20s is unhappily married to a bad husband.
The bull market isn't around yet. The bear market may linger longer due to factors that affect stock market performance (read here). Company performance, investor sentiments, industry performance, and economic performance all play a role. Interest rates are higher right now so entering stock markets would be good. Bonds and stocks work differently. Bonds are equity so nobody sensible would want a buy a bond (debt) when interest rates are higher. Meanwhile, stocks are all about buying a piece of equity and if it's devalued--one can take advantage of it. It will take a while for the bull market. I will probably have to wait longer until I get to finally trade in at least one of the equity funds.
Until then, it's best to wait. As my high school math teacher once chastised me and said, "If you're more patient, you can do things better. Just be patient and you'll get better." She was right to tell me that every time I yelled when something was hard for me to grasp. I needed to be more patient. Impatience has caused me to make some bad monetary decisions in the past. The stock market investment is no different. Patience is key and that's why I refuse to participate in that speculative orgy of day-trading.