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Cost Averaging for a Period VS. Buying Low-Sell High Strategy

 

I think it can be a heated debate at times between (1) cost averaging and (2) buying low and then selling high strategies. I was looking at what Warren Buffett said with this:

If you like spending six to eight hours per week working on investments, do it. If you don’t, then dollar-cost average into index funds.

I prefer to call it simply cost averaging. It's where one puts the same amount of money per month for a selected period. It's like the PHP 8,000.00 rule where one may choose to invest PHP 1,000.00 for eight months or PHP 2,000.00 for four months in buying stocks. Meanwhile, Buffett advises that most people should buy index funds instead. I decided to get the Philippine Equity Smart Index Fund via cost averaging and did some lump sums during the crash. 

Cost averaging is pretty much a safer way to avoid timing the market. The market moves not just during the opening but also during the closing. That's why I pretty much want to avoid playing casino with daily stock trading (read here). I decided to try a day trading simulator and found out how stressful it can get. It's like playing at the casino. Charlie Munger even called it a speculative orgy. Vulgar language but I can't help but agree with it. As Buffett also says:

If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes. 

Timing the market means waiting for the next crash or the next rise. I'm not saying timing the market is bad per se. Some people prefer to wait for stock prices to go down before they buy. It's because some prefer the advantage of lump sum investing. Meanwhile, risk-averse people are better off cost averaging such as putting PHP 1,000.00-PHP 2,000.00 per month in a stock index fund. It might be better to invest a reasonably small amount per month and a lump sum invest during a crash. The rule that follows is, "Invest only what you don't need now."

In my case, I'm pretty much an emotional investor for some time. I've made bad mistakes due to a bad temperament. I even allowed someone to buy in credit thinking only about the returns and not the risks. I nearly entered pyramid scams because of emotions. I decided that cost averaging might be the best for me. Besides, my horizon might be either two years, three years, five years, or even ten years. Buffett's strategy is pretty much in the long term. That is, never expect to get rich quick. Having my MBA is useless if I've got a bad temperament. As Buffett says, temperament wins over intelligence. Nobody should get the pleasure of being for the crowd or against it. Follow the right, not the crowd or those against the crowd. I need to be careful not to prematurely sell any funds just because of a slight increase. 

Some people manage to time the buying low and selling high strategy. They may have learned to time the market well. I guess such people aren't that emotionally carried. Still, I think there's wisdom in setting a reasonably small sum of money for a monthly investment and doing a lump sum during a crash. It would be like investing PHP 1,000.00 per month on a regular then getting PHP 5,000.00 for the crash, and then when prices rise up a bit, investing PHP 1,000.00 again every month. It's value-cost averaging. Invest the money that's not needed for now. But a beginner may want to think, "Invest only what you can afford to lose." because mistakes are bound to happen. These mistakes can happen such as impulse selling. Instead, investing by cost averaging (for a set period) would mean reducing losses. However, I'd believe that saying to invest only what you can afford to lose can be very self-defeating (read here). I used to believe that back then while ironically getting defeated by bad credit. 

Right now, I'm not going to argue too much about it. Some people have better risk management styles. In my case, cost averaging might be the best way for the more risk-averse and emotional type. I want to invest in the long term. I do lump sum only when prices are super low. However, I do cost averaging as much as possible to reduce the risk due to daily fluctuations. Hopefully, I can take Buffett's advice to heart and practice it consistently. 

References

Websites

"Buying the dip: Is this a good strategy when markets are falling?" by James Royal (May 26, 2022)

"Day Trading Definition: Why It Differs From Investing" by Sam Swenson, CFA, CPA (Updated: June 28, 2022)

"Warren Buffett: Why This Bear Market Could Be an Investor's Best Friend" by Catherine Brock (July 9, 2022)
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